THE FISCAL EFFECTS OF PROPOSED TRANSPORTATION OF
SPENT NUCLEAR FUEL ON NEVADA STATE AGENCIES

 

2.   THE BASE CASE SCENARIO

 
2.1 THE BASE CASE SCENARIO FOR TRANSPORTATION OF SNF/HLW
 

Under the base case scenario, containers of nuclear waste would be shipped to Nevada from about 80 reactor and defense sites throughout the country. Each waste site would ship by either legal weight truck or by rail, entering Nevada from the east or the south by highway and/or rail routes. The routes described in this report are based on current circumstances and policy: highway shipments (including heavy haul shipments of rail casks) would conform to the provisions of HM 164, requiring the use of interstate highways absent state designation of alternative routes; rail shipments would use class A railroads—minimizing time distance while favoring rail lines owned by the original carrier.

 
2.2THE NUMBER OF EARLY SHIPMENTS AND THEIR APPROACH TO NEVADA

Table 1 shows the number of shipments into the state that would be expected in the first five years of shipments, based on a recent analysis by the State of Nevada of nuclear waste transportation (PIC, 1996). The table shows that, in the first year of shipments under S. 104, the state would receive over 2,600 truck shipments (an average of over 50 per week) and 64 rail shipments (an average of 1.2 shipments per week).*  The table also shows that shipments by rail will increase over the period, and that shipments by truck will decrease.

The trend indicated by the table reflects the concentration of shipments of older fuel from sites having limited transportation infrastructure in the earlier years, and shipments from sites having more extensive transportation infrastructure increasing over time. The implication of this trend is that the total number of shipments—primarily by legal weight truck—will peak in the first year, and that shipments by rail and heavy haul truck will become more prevalent (in terms of the number of assemblies transported) in the later years.


*

Truck shipments in the initial shipment years are assumed to use currently-licensed 27-ton casks, containing one spent fuel assembly from a pressurized water nuclear reactor, or two assemblies from a boiling water reactor. Shipments in these casks can meet legal highway-weight limits of 80,000 pounds

Table 1. Base Case Shipment Scenario
Shipments Year 1 Year 2 Year 3-5
From the East
Rail and Heavy Haul Truck:
  Large Cask (125 ton)
  Small Cask (75 ton)
 
 
11
51


7
97


56
309
Truck 2,518 1,873 3,805
From the South:
Rail and Heavy Haul Truck:
  Large Cask (125 ton)
  Small Cask (75 ton)


2
-


2
-


5
23
Truck 87 109 -
Total Shipments
Rail/Heavy-Haul
  Average per Week

64
1.2

106
2.0

393
2.5
Truck
Average per Week
2,607
50.1
1,984
38.2
3,805
24.4
 

Planning Information Corporation
June 29, 1998
1141C331.008

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