by Hisham Karawy
There is an American approach, as explained in a report published lately by the CIA, that sees that Iran not Iraq will represent the biggest Middle Eastern nuclear challenges for USA. It also says, contrary to Clinton's viewpoint, that the moderate President, Mohamed Khatamy, and his leftist clergies may represent a bigger strategic danger than the conservatives led by Ali Khamnei. In this respect, the inside moderation may mean more outside activity as far as mobilizing the Islamic revolutionary enthusiasm is concerned.
The dangerous splits in "AlMallali" regime on domestic affairs was always a motive towards having one foreign affairs'goal such as possessing the nuclear bomb which represented the final guarantee for keeping the Islamic Republic alive. During the war between America (and its allies) and Iraq, Iran's political circles kept asking: if Iraq had nuclear weapons, would America have dared to challenge its insistence to annex Kuwait?. Iraq's destruction and siege was an impetus for Iran for launching, experimentally, the medium-range rocket "Shehab 3" whose only task seemed to be carrying nuclear heads and conducting them to the target. It was aimed at striking the American maritime power as represented in its fleet existing in the Gulf.
So, according to the report, whoever possesses such weapons will not hesitate in using them in threatening or even invading his neighbours and consequently jeopardizing the American-Saudi-Gulf alliance, putting in mind the American unwillingess to interfere. The American pressures, or even threats, on the countries that provide Iran with the advanced technology such as Russia, China and North Korea become so soft that they go on with their provisions together with some western weapon companies.
Thus, at the time of focusing on the Iraqi disarmament case, Iran goes on with an unprecedented armamental programme making use of the Iraqi lesson; For Iran, the nuclear bomb is not only a guarantee of survival but also an effective tool in the balances with its neighbours.
Finally, the report recommends promoting the Turkish-Israeli nuclear alliance to contain the Iranian danger in the Gulf.